This site uses cookies to optimize functionality and give you the best possible experience. Overall the outlook for gold demand in the wireless sector remains positive. While other developed market central banks have increased their gold reserves in recent years, this has typically been at a much slower pace. While mass-appeal 24K gold jewellery maintains its popularity in some regions, market share could fall further as products with more intricate designs gain greater prominence. Please check your download folder. Profit from the additional features of your individual account. Annual net purchases by central banks in tonnes (World Gold Council). Similarly, when excluding the impact of Massawa, the net reduction in reserves year-on-year is approximately 2%. For more information, refer here. Many emerging economies growth is linked to commodities. The reserves are made of gold or a specific currency. Indian-listed funds also contributed to the regional growth with net inflows of 9t in 2021, aided by 2.5t of inflows in Q4. Finally, Zambia increased its gold reserves by a fractional 0.1t in Q2. High global growth with rising inflation expectations lifts commodities. This information is not a recommendation or an offer for the purchase or sale of gold or any products, services, or securities. Source: IMF IFS, Respective Central Banks, World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q2 2021 - Central banks, Gold Demand Trends Q2 2021 - Statistics XLSX, , 20212, 2021 - , Gold Demand Trends Q2 2021 - all files ZIP, Important disclaimers and disclosures [+], Important disclaimers and disclosures [-], Central banks globally bought 333t in H1, 39% above the five-year H1 average, Thailand, Hungary and Brazil were the biggest purchasers during the first half, collectively adding 207t to their gold reserves. In addition, we believe pent-up wedding gold jewellery demand from 2020 also supported Chinas gold jewellery demand growth in 2021. We are an active force within the market, working with a large and diverse set of partners to create access, drive innovation and stimulate demand, while providing a collective voice for our members. The best asset performers protecting investors from inflation are Gold, Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, and the US Dollar. Investment demand was mixed in an environment of opposing forces: high inflation competed with rising yields for investors attention. Bar and coin investment accelerated sharply in the first half of 2021, gaining almost 50% y-o-y by the end of Q2. This forms part of Russias de-dollarisation policy, and the NFW completed the removal of the dollar from its holdings in July. The inflows pushed total holdings in Indian-listed funds to 37.6t by end of 2021, with AUM touching US$2.4bn. In contrast to ETF investors, who apparently were more focused on the likely upward path of interest rates, bar and coin investors were more concerned with rising inflationary pressures. Looking at these outflows in a longer-term context provides useful perspective. Use Ask Statista Research Service. Demand for gold used in other industrial applications also recovered, rising 12% to 47t, while dental demand continued its steady decline with a 4% fall to 11t. According to data from the IMF, global central bank gold reserves rose to just shy of 35,600t during 2021, the highest level since 1992.8. The degree of intervention depends on the countrys fundamentals. Restructure, 3. It is the difference between total supply and gold demand. The World Gold Council is the market development organization for the gold industry. The tug-of-war between interest rates and inflation was reflected in investment demand and created a drag on price. Accessed March 18, 2023. https://www.statista.com/statistics/929799/gold-holdings-in-germany/, World Gold Council. You will not see all the features of this website. Other regular buyers during the first six months were Uzbekistan (25.5t), India (29t), Cambodia (5t), and Mongolia (1.8t). Check a representative list of factors monitored below: Country Macroeconomic Overview This is reflected in the quarterly data for 2021, which shows sequential quarterly growth in recycling volumes from Q1, despite average quarterly gold prices being relatively steady. Demand in China for the beginning of 2022 could be restrained by increasing COVID-related restrictions and the current economic slowdown. Our Notes and definitions reflect these changes and clearly explain all statistics presented in Gold Demand Trends. These are the reserves of the central bank and the treasury of the country, not the private sector. This was balanced to an extent by inventory adjustments by some major LED backlight end-users (such as TV manufacturers) who reportedly carried high stocks from Q3. Show publisher information Sri Lankas sale represented around half of its gold reserves and was done to help bolster the liquidity of its foreign reserves, which hit a 12-year low in November. The sharp price rally, and subsequent correction, during November reportedly also encouraged buying, with investors hoping for an opportunity to generate returns. The sale from Germany was likely related to its long-standing coin-minting programme. Gold ETFs had net outflows of 173t (US$9bn) in 2021. Investment demand in South Korea finished the year at 21t, an increase on the 19t purchased in 2020. The more streamlined data tables lend themselves to simplified terminology. Logistical constraints played a part; a shortage of tamper-proof packaging cards limited the supply of investment bars. No central bank is planning to decrease its We provide insights into the international gold markets, helping people to understand the investment qualities of gold and its role in meeting the social and environmental needs of society. It grew 67% to 2,221t to meet the strong rebound in jewellery consumer demand, which increased 52% in 2021 to 2,124t, matching the 2019 total. (SDR - special drawing rights). A nations economy is vulnerable to economic weakness or financial stress when it experiences: Trend & Momentum indicators September 30, 2022. for Gold Demand Trends Q2 2017, year-to-date referred to the period from 31/12/2016 to 30/06/2017). But we believe that a more tactical approach to gold ETF investment also played a role, as the gold price moved within a range for much of the year. Refining But the subsequent sharp rise and rapid correction in the local price later in the quarter saw demand slow to a virtual standstill; as a result, Q4 demand was down 20% from the third quarter. VIX This boosted consumer sentiment particularly in urban India as reflected in an increase in the Reserve Bank of Indias Consumer Confidence Index, which rose to 62.3 in November 2021. The recovery in the other industrial and decorative segment was chiefly due to India, where the improving economy helped boost demand for jari, a gold thread used in saris. Turkish jewellery consumers were discouraged by extreme currency-induced volatility in the local gold price during Q4. To use individual functions (e.g., mark statistics as favourites, set During this environment the best asset performers are Long-Duration Treasuries and Cash. They are considered low risk. Central banks accumulated 463t of gold in 2021, 82% higher than the 2020 total and lifting global reserves to a near 30-year high. The move signals that gold remains an important asset for the Russian official sector, despite the Central Bank of Russiahaving suspended its gold buying programme in March 2020. Fabrication of gold coins without a face value, produced by both private and official/national mints. It may receive support from higher inflation expectations and possible weakness in the rupee due to the widening trade deficit. Show sources information However, given that the recovery of the automotive and consumer electronics sectors are set to continue, we believe 2022 will remain broadly flat as these competing factors begin to balance one another out. Annual demand grew 69%; Q4 was the eighth consecutive quarter of y-o-y growth at rates of at least double-digits. This is financed by issuing new debt financed by 1. domestic or foreign investors or 2. Top 10 gold mining companies ranked by reserves. This analysis is based on the work of Ray Dalio and more specifically how the economic machine works. Anecdotally, increased recycling flows took place in the third and fourth quarters in some markets, including the US, as lockdowns eased and shops re-opened. Bloomberg View columnist Barry Ritholtz looks at the people and ideas that shape markets, investing and business. The volume (in fine weight) of gold mined globally. Fabrication is the first transformation of gold bullion into a semi-finished or finished product. The worst performing financial assets are US treasury bonds and cash since they are adversely affected by rising inflation. Double-digit y-o-y growth in Q4 concluded a strong 2021 for gold jewellery demand in China. During these periods high growth assets like stocks experience high returns and are priced efficiently based on their fundamental drivers. A spokesperson for MAS stated: The change in gold holdings is a result of the continuous and ongoing efforts by MAS to ensure that the Official Foreign Reserves portfolio remains well-diversified and resilient through economic and market conditions,. Q4 2021 saw net purchases of 48t the lowest quarterly level of net buying since Q3 2010. Although mine production increased to 3,561t, largely due to fewer pandemic interruptions, it was still slightly below its 2019 level. The number of respondents who will increase their own gold holdings has climbed to 21%, compared to 20% last year. Non-reserve currency countries: Conversely, developing nations are not considered low risk hence their ability to borrow in their own currencies is limited. Debt: A nations debt is categorized as local currency debt and FX debt. Q4 saw a 9% y-o-y fall to 301t, bringing the annual supply of recycled gold to 1,150t. Data for each year as of the 4th quarter, except for 2022. Our new table removes this duplication. Stocks, How Financial Markets Work WebAs of September 2021, there were approximately 31,695 tons of gold reserves in the world. Output in H2 2021 was unchanged compared to H2 2020. The performance of each financialassetfor each economic environment is explained below. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. In a third consecutive quarter of net central bank buying, global gold reserves grew by 199.9t in Q2, the highest level of quarterly net purchases since Q2 2019 (227.8t) and 73% above the five-year quarterly average. For more information on this process, please see Creating a consistent data series by Dr. James Abdey. WebGermany Foreign Exchange Reserves Summary Forecast Stats Download Foreign Exchange Reserves in Germany increased to 281692 EUR Million in January from 276488 EUR WebTotal reserves (includes gold, current US$) - Germany from The World Bank: Data. This statistic is not included in your account. Changes to the level of jewellery stocks along the jewellery distribution chain, this is the difference between gold fabrication and gold consumption. Total gold supply eased marginally in 2021: down 1% at 4,666t, its lowest level since 2017. In the fourth quarter jewellery consumption was 20% higher y-o-y the third consecutive quarter of y-o-y growth. This was in good part linked to Q4 demand, which at 713t saw the strongest quarterly jewellery consumption since Q2 2013. Structural losses continued in the dental sector, where migration to lower-cost and cosmetically preferred alternatives continues. Global real GDP growth is expected to be solid, reducing the need for distress selling. Certain risks to this growth stem from continued COVID-related disruptions and, of course, operational issues. In H2 2021, this element of investment demand maintained good momentum, as high inflation readings across the globe kept retail investors focused on golds role as an inflation hedge and wealth protection asset. Over time, hedging activity does not generate a net change in the supply of gold. With the easing of lockdown restrictions from June onwards and continued successful roll out of the vaccination program, Indias economy recovered in H2 2021. Quarterly demand data begins Q1 2000. Postponed weddings that were rescheduled to the most recent quarter also had an impact. The value of annual demand was the highest in our series by some margin, at US$8bn. If credit is used to purchase productive resources, it helps economic growth and income. The combination of a lower gold price and continued economic recovery saw annual demand for bars and coins reach 29t, compared with net selling of 87t in 2020. Chinas gold bar and coin demand reached 77t in Q4, taking the 2021 annual total to 285t, a 44% increase on 2020 and a three-year high. Advanced users can use our Python/R/Matlab packages. Stock Markets Full-year gold demand in the technology sector grew by 9% to 330t, with y-o-y growth seen in all four quarters, A buoyant electronics sector bounced back from the 2020 impact of the pandemic, growing 9% to 272t. India, for example, added a further 77t to its gold reserves in 2021, the biggest increase since 2009 when it bought 200t from the IMF. There are four macroeconomic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Central banks accumulated 463t of gold in 2021, 82% higher than the 2020 total and lifting global reserves to a near 30-year high. Learn how to update your browser. Trend change is assumed when a specific indicator has recorded a 3-month high / low or more. In this episode, Bronson explains how the lessons he learned in the kitchen translated to the booth, the reason money can never be the motivation for creating art, and why he believes that imperfections are the best part of any masterpiece. MacroVar risk management is a quantitative model which monitors critical financial markets and warns investors when financial risk is rising quickly. the amount (in fine weight) of gold purchased directly by individuals. Total net investment in gold bars, coins and medals/imitation coins. This was supported by the wedding season, year-end promotions and a weaker gold price. Data are in current U.S. dollars. While the jewellery market has improved, consumers are still reluctant to make big-ticket purchases. Many large manufacturers have had to inject ingenuity and agility into their operations to cope with a range of situations, including sudden localised lockdowns and energy rationing. Central banks and other official institutions. Though Germany total reserves (includes gold) fluctuated substantially in recent years, it tended to increase through 1972 - 2021 period ending at 295,736 million US dollars in 2021. Bullion dealers say demand remains strong on inflation hedge, Still, gold prices have been pressured by Fed taper concerns. Includes annual net purchases/ sales of at least one tonne. Is this happening to you frequently? For example, Greece has increased its gold reserves by over 2t but over a period of ten years.12. World Gold Council does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information and does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information. MacroVar monitors global financial markets and economies using advanced Data Analytics. It is equal to the volume of fine gold in coins fabricated by official/national mints which are, or have been, legal tender in the country of issue. During these macroeconomic conditions economic growth is strong, capacity utilization is high and hence rising inflation is experienced. Annual jewellery consumption in Malaysia rose by 10% to 10t, with a 37% y-o-y increase in Q4 to 4t. As a Premium user you get access to background information and details about the release of this statistic. Monitor global financial markets and economies using MacroVar financial data analytics. This trend is likely to continue as long as central banks maintain a hawkish tone, thus increasing the opportunity cost for gold. Depletion of 7.5 million ounces was largely replaced by additions before revisions of 4.9 million ounces and net revisions of 1.1 million ounces primarily from mine plan improvements. Amongst the operating sites, 2.2 million ounces were also added to proven and probable reserves to partially offset production depletion. The most important factor to predict from a fundamental point is view is globaleconomic growthtrend for the next one to three months. Explore MacroVar financial knowledge base structured by professional fund managers and economists. Ghana and Tanzania have both made similar announcements but have yet to report any increases in official gold reserves. Data. It added 3t in 2021 (+47%), the first rise in its gold holdings since a 0.5t addition in 2008. At the global level, it is measured as jewellery fabrication adjusted for changes in inventories held by the trade. An expansion of global liquidity leads to debt growth which is favorable for financial assets and economic growth and vice versa. Mexican output increased by 14t y-o-y and South African production increased by 13t as the industry recovered from the pandemic in both of these countries. Mine production recovered 2% over the year but this growth was counteracted by a sharp 11% drop in recycling. This makes the 40% y-o-y increase in the most recent quarter all the more impressive. As we reported through the year, the pandemic continued to impact both supply and demand across all technology sectors. Demand growth was generally considered to be due to the lack of competition for discretionary spending, given the ongoing lull in spending on travel and entertainment. Local debt is manageable since a countrys central bank can print money and repay it. The pace of buying slowed in the second half, with a 22% y-o-y decline in Q4. Also known as antique crafted gold these are chunky 24K gold products that evoke the style and craftmanship of ancient China with matte finishing and traditional cultural designs. Dussehra was celebrated on 15 October 2021. In a continuation of the established trend, a large number of emerging market central banks bought gold, demonstrating the breadth of interest.9 Many of the 15 central banks that bought a tonne or more over the year were familiar names, having added to their gold reserves recently. The previous presentation method also produced two slightly different measures of gold demand. More specifically, stock market dynamics are analyzed based on S&P Dow Jones Indices indexes developed based on GICS (? Trading Economics members can view, download and compare data from nearly 200 countries, including more than 20 million economic indicators, exchange rates, government bond yields, stock indexes and commodity prices. Kyrgyz Republic (7t), Sri Lanka (~4t), Germany (3t), and the UAE (2t) were the other notable sellers during the year. Exports are imports are the main revenue and expense for countries. In value terms, annual demand reached US$123bn to virtually match the 2013 record. Continued improvement in tourist numbers, especially from India, aided this growth, while the relatively effective containment of COVID generated a positive mood that helped local demand. Note: Five-year average of H1 demand between 2016 and 2020, and ten-year average of H1 demand between 2011 and 2020. Pushya Nakshatra falls a few days ahead of Dhanteras (which marks the first day of Diwali), and for 2021 this started on 24 October and ended on 25 October. Though Germany international reserves fluctuated substantially in recent years, it tended to increase through 1972 - 2021 period ending at 295,736 million US dollars in 2021. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. articles a month for anyone to read, even non-subscribers! Online Profile, Check (Kitco News) - Russian gold miner Polyus boasts the largest gold reserves base across the industry with a stunning 71% growth year-over-year. Commodities Global annual mine production (World Gold Council). Total supply fell 1% y-o-y in 2021; a sharp drop in recycling more than offset higher mine production. If you are new to Sector & Industry specific investing click here for an introduction to sectors & industries. Consumer confidence was likely buoyed by the countrys relative success in dealing with the pandemic. For an explanation of global recycled gold, please see the Notes and definitions. Fourth quarter consumption increased by 9% to 5t, the third consecutive quarter of growth. Sign up free to access MacroVar Financial & Economic database and advanced analytics. **Estimated. MacroVar Trend model for financial markets MacroVar Trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. This element of the model captures various components, including demand in the OTC market (for which data is not readily available), changes to inventories on commodity exchanges, any unobserved changes in fabrication inventories and any statistical residual. Jewellery shops remained open throughout the year, and limited tourism began to resume in H2, which will likely support the market throughout 2022. WebIn 2021, international reserves for Germany was 295,736 million US dollars. The broad range of buying in 2021 has shown there is still significant appetite for gold as a reserve asset. *Data to 31 December 2021. Statista. Germany gold reserves trend is in an uptrend when the last value is higher than its twelve-month moving average and its twelve-month moving average slope is positive (last twelve-month moving average is higher than the previous month twelve-month moving average) and vice-versa. Hedging transactions which release gold to the market from existing above-ground stocks accelerates the sale of gold. This brings net buying for H1 to 333.2t, 63% higher than H1 2020, 39% higher than the five-year H1 average, and 29% above the ten-year H1 average. Mine production in Q4 2021 fell 1% y-o-y to 915t. Egypt reported a 56% increase after Sukari recovered from a pit stability problem that occurred in Q4 2020, and Kyrgyzstan is believed to have increased mine production from Kumtor due to the processing of higher grades although we are seeing less information on this mines performance following its seizure by the state. This gold reserve data compiled using IMF IFS statistics tracks central banks reported purchases and sales along with gold as a percentage of their Record quarterly demand of 265t in Q4 set the seal on this remarkable annual performance. However, while the percentage increase is relatively small, this is the first time quarterly electronics demand has exceeded 70t since Q4 2017. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. Okay to continue The reason for this was two-fold. (The difference between the previous and current measures of gold demand is the volume of jewellery inventory in any given year, which has ranged between -85t and +36t since 2010.). Latest IMF data puts Thai gold reserves at 244.2t, 6% of total reserves, the highest level on record.2 The Central Bank of Thailand Governor, Dr Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, indicated that gold addresses the key reserve management objectives of security, return, diversification and tail-risk hedging. Gold used in LEDs grew on the back of the ongoing recovery in the automotive sector, but challenges remain. After seeing sharp outflows early in 2021, these funds turned positive for the remainder of the year, fully reversing the 44t Q1 decline. Note the gold-for-gold exchange is not counted as recycling supply in our methodology. Raising Credit, Easing Debt service, Print money > purchase financial assets > force investors to take more risk & create wealth effect, Print Money > purchase new debt issued to finance Gov.