There are continuing divisions in our country over the election. Pro-democracy groups say more than 60 elections have been postponed during COVID, and more than 40 countries have restricted press freedom. At issue was a classic frame-of-reference problem. We should use where theyre, for example, attempting to infiltrate critical infrastructure or mess with voter-registration databases, we should take offensive action to disrupt their technical capability. (Poland is discussed if Air Force One goes to Warsaw; Iran flits into view only in relation to Washingtons nuclear diplomacy; Madagascar appears only in cartoon form, mostly featuring talking animals that dont actually live there.) And where do we draw a line where activitys potentially, you know, too unstable for the United States to conduct? Now, I dont know that China had a plan to do so. Learn more about Friends of the NewsHour. Or through aid agreements that are onerous, that indebt nations to China. And that is, whether its defensive measures and protecting U.S. infrastructure, including on the cyber end, or offensive measures, what are your thoughts specific thoughts on how, if at all, really to deter this kind of activity in the in the future? Very quickly, the ruling classes hijacked people power and hoarded the economic dividends arising And his answer was, are we so different. Thus Yeltsin calling in an artillery strike on the Russian legislature was "democratic," but Poland's social conservatives winning an outright majority in the recent election is "authoritarian." But the longer we wait, the more the cancer of authoritarianism will spread. You know, there were, certainly, efforts at spear phishing and other malign activities. Have you ever spotted a breathless octobox of talking heads on CNN or Fox News debating the death of democracy in Turkey, Sri Lanka, or the Philippines? Im the president of CSIS. Depending on the severity of what they do, we should use both defensive and offensive means. WebAuthoritarian rule can also have unintended consequences for regional security, Taussig says, such as when regimes domestic repressive circumstances breed instability, generate refugees and lead to violent extremism. Authoritarians in every region are working together to consolidate power and accelerate their attacks on democracy and human rights. The first is that Russia wasnt deterred from all of the reaction to its interference in 2016. Very quickly, the ruling classes hijacked people power and hoarded the economic dividends arising It needs to be a priority in our diplomatic discussions. Szeleczki says her mother's death could have been prevented, and that, in Hungary, no one person should have total control. After Trump stoked a bona fide insurrection, the threat to democracy would be impossible to ignore. Washington, DC 20036, Marking 50 Years in the Struggle for Democracy, Countering an Authoritarian Overhaul of the Internet, From Democratic Decline to Authoritarian Aggression, Afghanistan Human Rights Coordination Mechanism, Emergency Assistance and Thematic Programs, Freedom in the World 2022: The Global Expansion of Authoritarian Rule. Even Frantz, who has been more optimistic about Americas democratic resilience in the past, doesnt have a particularly reassuring retort to the doom-mongers: I dont think U.S. democracy will collapse, but just hover in a flawed manner for a while, as in Poland.. According to pro-democracy institutions, authoritarianism was on the rise globally even before the coronavirus pandemic hit. Elections are increasingly flashpoints for violence. Democratic governments must rally to counter authoritarian abuses and support the brave human rights defenders fighting for freedom around the world. Autocracies pose a particular threat to gender equity and the rights of historically marginalized people, including women and LGBTQ+ people. But in the 21st century, most democracies die like a chronic but terminal patient. In fact, the Kremlin used at least one of the same people, Konstantin Kilimnik. Pro-democracy groups say that authoritarianism was already on the rise before COVID-19. I want to underscore in every way that I can that I want the intelligence analysts and others to report to us exactly what their best assessments are, whether they think we want to hear it or they dont. It must have been quite a delight for the Kremlin to realize that their best propagandist in that respect was the president of the United States, Donald Trump. The best defense for us is to develop a national consensus that regardless of who it helps or who it hurts, both parties will condemn any kind of foreign interference, and neither will seek to exploit it. But I am hopeful going forward that now that we are in a different position, where were not dealing with a president who is affirmatively trying to exploit and politicize the work of the intelligence community, that we can restore some level of comity. My names John Hamre. But experts say the distraction of the crisis has allowed some leaders to indulge their dictatorial impulses without attracting much attention from the people they govern. Autocrats in Beijing and Moscow want to co-opt the label of democracy to boost their own credibility while undermining actual democracy worldwide. We knew at the time as we were watching this that Russia was actively interfering in our election. Hes not just a national figure, hes also the representative from the 28th District in California. And so China is not in a good position to be arguing that its method of dealing with the virus is the best. But for those who had watched Trump-like authoritarian strongmen rise in Turkey, India, Hungary, Poland, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Venezuela, Trump was never entertaining. Autocracies pose a particular threat to gender equity and the rights of historically marginalized people, including women and LGBTQ+ people. On why nationalism and authoritarianism is spreading globally: The first was the excess of globalization, the excess of capitalism, and the creation of exploding inequality happening at the same time that globalization is kind of encroaching on people's national identity or tribal identity I mean, what do you think is the next 5G, where Chinas products pose a threat to secure communications? Authoritarian leaders are increasingly collaborating with one another to spread new forms of repression and rebuff democratic pressure. The second is to perpetually block authoritarian Republicans from wielding power. Were more likely to see civil wars break out within those environments, she said, citing Syria as a prime example. But more important, Frantz explained, there was a cleaning of the house after Parks impeachment, with the new administration aggressively getting rid of those who had been complicit in the countrys slide to authoritarianism.. So the long and the short of it is we need to use the tools that we have, taking none of them off the table, but letting other nations know that this is not a freebee, that they will pay a price. But when democracies start dyingas ours already hasthey usually dont recover. Eventually, the authoritarian party will win. At some point, Trumps spell over the country and his party could break. Alina Polyakova is the director of the Center for European Policy Analysis. We have a question that is takes this particular subject, on the politicization of intelligence, but in a slightly different direction. Nick Schifrin reports and talks to The Atlantics Anne Applebaum about this dangerous global dynamic. We also see that new actors are getting in the business of election interference with Irans malign activities, which were of a far lesser scope and scale than Russia but pretty aggressive pushing out a false flag operation pretending to be the Proud Boys and threatening Democratic voters that they better register Republican and support Donald Trump. Freedom House says 2019 was the 14th consecutive year of decline in their Global Freedom Index. And we did that within democratic frameworks. Our achievement is comparable to any other country. The outliers were the GOP members of our committee, led by Ranking Member or Chairman Nunes, depending on the time. Rep. Adam Schiff: Well, John, thank you very much. But the lessons from around the world show that democracies do die. Corruption is growing. As it would turn out, though, it had another salutary effect which I didnt contemplate at the time we were including this in the intelligence bill. Now, when it comes to the Russians, you know, as long as they feel they have a sufficient incentive to do so, theyll continue to hack and meddle and sow discord on social media. Rep. Adam Schiff: Well, Ill tell you, you know, what I think is the good news/bad news of the situation with the intelligence committees in particular, but its probably true more broadly of Congress. But to do that, Democrats need to win every election. And you know, where its necessary, obviously, we need to harden our defenses. Finally, the symptoms were undeniable. The problem with the Chinese argument is that it's undermined by their own actions during the crisis and the fact that it was the Chinese government that first denied that the pandemic was dangerous. And given that weve already lost half-a-million lives you can imagine the structural changes we would bring if it were a terrorist attack that cost half-a-million lives. It hurts a lot that she is not with us anymore. And because of accountability I dont believe that you can simply say, well, a pox on both houses. In other countries, opportunism. Sometimes, the president who ends up in your White House isnt even the person who got the most votes., Our election system isnt perfect, I replied then. So I think it has to be very much a part of our agenda. So all of those aspects of Chinese power projection were going to have to meet and push back. I think we have time probably for one last question and it builds on what you just noted, which is which is COVID-19 pandemic. Frantz pointed to Ecuador, Slovenia, and South Korea as recent examples. If injustice and oppression arent bad enough, authoritarian governments bear an enormous social cost. Authoritarian regimes in China, Russia, and elsewhere have gained greater power in the international system, and freer countries have seen their established democratic norms challenged and fractured. He went on to make the suggestion that the British were implicated. As uncomfortable a topic as it may be for China and as distasteful as it is for Russia, Im, you know, proud to see our representatives going toe to toe. Thats not you know, first of all, it was totally false. Sham elections, in which potential opposition candidates were sidelined by politically motivated prosecutions and other obstacles designed to fortify incumbents, took place in Russia in September, Nicaragua in November, and Hong Kong in December. You have known many of the players. Everyone (laughs) everyone in America knows him. Autocracies pose a particular threat to gender equity and the rights of historically marginalized people, including women and LGBTQ+ people. And really, the importance of allies and partners become important because this is about authoritarianism and in many ways versus democratic institutions, the U.S. and its allies around the world. Do you fear that that argument could be accepted by people around the world? So you talk for a second even within the congressional side, how serious are some of these concerns about the politicization of intelligence, even in how Congress has used it and on committees? Beyond Putins Russia, authoritarian regimes are on the rise globallya worrying trend that could roll back decades of democratic gains and human rights achievements worldwide. Four years later, Kilimnik would be back at it, also Andrii Derkach, and they would be pushing out many of the same narratives and smears. And how do we adopt, as part of that, a more bipartisan approach as we combat authoritarianism? The agony persists over years. They didnt need to worry about mass demonstrations as much in the streets. Of the 47 nations elected to the UN Human Rights Council for 2022, 15 are rated Free, 18 are rated Partly Free, and 14 are rated Not Free in. And one of the things that is apparent when you read the assessment is that several agency heads, including former Attorney General Bill Barr and former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, his predecessor Ric Grenell, National Security Adviser OBrien, and others were not candid with the country. VLADIMIR SMIRNOV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images Rep. Adam Schiff: Well, I think the threat is extraordinarily grave. Maybe not enough in isolation, but if it tips and cues other information and we and this gets to another point we may not have time to discuss but we make much better use of open-source information, we may be able to put two and two together quicker. Our current situation started with a botched diagnosis. Nyhan believes there is now a significant risk that the 2024 election outcome will be illegitimate. When youre facing off against an authoritarian political movement, each election is an existential threat to democracy. Early intervention increases the rate of survival, but the longer the disease festers, the more that miracles become the only hope. While the world is not sinking into authoritarianism, a post-quarantine world could be less democratic than its previous iteration; the tools that have been temporarily deployed in the fight against a once-in-a-lifetime disease may become permanent. And so I was advocating at the time that we respond with information warfare. This was arguably most visible last year in the United States, where rioters stormed the Capitol on January 6 as part of an organized attempt to overturn the results of the presidential election. Governments are becoming less transparent and have lost the trust of the people. That overconfidence has been instilled into its citizens, leading me a decade ago to the mistaken, naive belief that countries such as Madagascar have something to learn from the U.S. rather than also having wisdom to teach us. So ultimately, in terms of the rise or fall of global democracy, China presents the gravest model. I. Chinese and Russian envoys to the United Nations have worked to water down the international response to the military coups in Myanmar and Sudan, and Moscow has sought to strengthen economic ties with the junta in Myanmar. And how do we work with our partners to protect American democracy more broadly overseas? Congressman, thank you. Sign up to receive The Evening, a daily brief on the news, events, and people shaping the world of international affairs. Our democracy, like every democracy, requires work. And so and there are a number of autocracies, at the same time, that have done badly. American democracy is dying. It was what our intelligence professionals were telling us. When Trump won office, I pushed back against forecasts that democracy in the U.S. was doomed, she explained. So they wanted to push out this narrative and have for several years that Russia hadnt interfered in our election four years ago, that it was Ukraine, and they also wanted to smear Joe Biden, who the Russians considered a grave threat. And rather than cleaning house, the Republicans who dared to condemn Trump are now the partys biggest pariahs, while the January 6 apologists are rising stars. And it crosses every domain. If injustice and oppression arent bad enough, authoritarian governments bear an enormous social cost. And I know thats how the president, President Biden, feels about it. And the worst may be yet to come. Democracy is in real danger all over the globe, said Michael J. Abramowitz, president of Freedom House. The former president, Donald Trump, was the gift that kept on giving to the Russians. According to pro-democracy institutions, authoritarianism was on the rise globally even before the coronavirus pandemic hit. As we sipped our coffees and I asked them questions, one of the generals I was interviewing interrupted me. That misreading is provoking an underreaction from the political establishment. Democracies cant depend on one of two major parties never holding power, argues Brendan Nyhan, a government professor at Dartmouth College and a co-founder of Bright Line Watch, a group that monitors the erosion of American democracy. Those examples once signaled a hopeful possibility for the United States. It wasnt a partisan difference. And for some leaders around the world, the pandemic has been the crisis they have been waiting for. And they were able to successfully launder some of that information through U.S. persons, including people in Congress, and that ought to be a warning to us. You know, we still have, I think, tremendous advantages over China, and one of them is our system. Rep. Adam Schiff: Well, you know, I think one of the reasons why one of the many reasons why Russia had such a strong preference for Donald Trump, and I think theres a strong case to be made that Trump was so much better for China as well, is that our relationships with our allies atrophied so badly over the last four years. Thanks, Chairman Schiff. Global freedom and prosperity are at stake., What gives me hope is that, in spite of these declines, global demand for freedom and democracy remains as strong as ever, Abramowitz added. He leads NewsHour's foreign reporting and has created week-long, in-depth series for NewsHour from China, Russia, Ukraine, Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya, Cuba, Mexico, and the Baltics. When Trump first rose to political prominence, much of the American political class reacted with amusement, seeing him as a sideshow. Authoritarianism and nationalism are on the rise around the world. Sanctions arent a particularly useful remedy with North Korea because theyre already so heavily sanctioned. Corruption is growing. Well, I think that we have a moral obligation and a strong national interest in supporting freedom-loving people around the world, in supporting democratic movements around the world, in championing peoples rights to associate freely and speak freely and choose their own representatives. And the Soviets well, the Russians today have certainly used that as a historic example of U.S. meddling. Assassinations can snuff out democracy in a split second, coups in an hour or two, and revolutions in a day. Thank you. For decades, libertarians have focused on illiberalism coming from the political left. The Authoritarian Personality, in short, is both us and U.S. That propaganda apparatus has waged an ideological battle, arguing that their version of communism, their country, their structure is better equipped to deal with this kind of crisis. If injustice and oppression arent bad enough, authoritarian governments bear an enormous social cost. And the pandemic has accelerated many of these trends, Blinken said. Now, on those very high-profile investigations we were not so successful. This is why its vital to be open about whats happening to raise the specter of authoritarianism. It kind of brings it back to Congress and bipartisanship. Orban's silencing of the press and downplaying COVID meant Hungarians didn't receive the information they needed. Instead, they end up as authoritarian states with zombified democratic institutions: rigged elections in place of legitimate ones, corrupt courts rather than independent judges, and propagandists replacing the press. They were only unprecedented to us. Authoritarianism is a form of government characterised by strong central powers and limited political freedoms. I think if you look at 2016 to 2020, there are a number of through lines. Nationalism and authoritarianism are on the march, writes The Washington Post: Democracy as an ideal and in practice seems under siege. Yes, and there are reasons for this. The book is "Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism.". 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Now, people are braving the pandemic to do it nonetheless, and as more people are vaccinated theyll probably feel more freedom to organize and associate to try to stand down some of these face down some of these autocratic regimes. When we look at authoritarian regimes its one of the subjects of the discussion today, the rise of authoritarianism across the globe you know, countries like China are weak and vulnerable in areas. The instinct to crackdown on the free press and to try and control speech and to channel it in certain directions, I think, has always been with us. When youre facing off against an authoritarian political movement, each election is an existential threat to democracy. Nationalism and authoritarianism are on the march, writes The Washington Post: Democracy as an ideal and in practice seems under siege. Yes, and there are reasons for this. But nonetheless, China is a very powerful competitor. But, of course, I was hampered, as were my colleagues on the committee, because we couldnt produce the intelligence report, and the administration was able to say, well, theyre just saying that because its a partisan difference. From the October 2018 issue: Americans arent practicing democracy anymore, Erica Frantz, a political scientist and expert on authoritarianism at Michigan State University, told me she shares that concern: With Republicans out of the White House and in the congressional minority, democratic deterioration in the U.S. has simply been put on pause., Frantz was more sanguine during much of the Trump era. I think it was a huge mistake that unlimited power was given in one person's hands. To discuss that and how authoritarianism has spread during COVID, I'm joined by Anne Applebaum, staff writer at "The Atlantic, " a historian on Central and Eastern Europe, and author of a new book just out, "Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism. March 19, 2021. And I know that he spends just as much time working for his district as he does for all of us. Authoritarians are becoming bolder, while democracies are back on their heels. Let me turn to you for your prepared remarks, and then Seth Jones will engage with you in a question and answer period. So we need to make our best efforts to work in a nonpartisan way. Washington, DC 20036. Our Constitution was made only for a moral and These leaders say extraordinary times require extraordinary steps, like border closures, quarantines, and tracking. They, obviously, have to deal with Taiwan. In Russia, during a World War II commemoration parade, police shoved protesters into vans, thanks to a new measure against public assembly. Last month, the editor of Hungary's most read news site was fired for coverage critical of the government. So they had a very big stake in the outcome of our election and they pushed out this Kremlin-originated smear against Joe Biden. That report was consistent with our minority report. Where is the U.S. when it comes to this story? And where I wanted to start was to pick up on your use of the term deterrence here. Im proud to see with the Biden administration that in meetings with Russia and China there is no shying away from raising these issues. It continued through an aggressive social media campaign, overt media campaign, to try to influence events in our election, and more than that, it used one different vector. They marched for democratic values and held signs "Free Country, Free Press, " but, in Hungary, the press is increasingly not free, and democracy is sliding down an authoritarian slope. So whats actually in that report thats of significance? But authoritarianism has taken root among many conservatives across the world. Worse, the outlook for the human rights condition in authoritarian regimes is even bleaker. But even if we find workarounds to 5G, there may not be a workaround to the next big thing, technologically. In a good position to be open about whats happening to raise the specter of authoritarianism will.... 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